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Countdown to World War I: August 2, 1914

by Stephen Yellin

This is part of a series of daily articles that covers the run-up to the catastrophe of World War I in July 1914. The diplomatic crisis exactly 100 years ago was sparked by the murder of the main force for peace in the Austro-Hungarian Empire – Archduke Franz Ferdinand, together with his wife Sophie– by a Serbian terrorist. Backed by Germany’s offering of unconditional support in using force to retaliate against Serbia – the infamous “blank check”– the Viennese authorities began preparing a list of demands for the Serbian government to accept or face war. The demands were deliberately made to ensure war would occur.

The ultimatum was finally issued on July 23, 1914, over 3 weeks after the Archduke’s murder. The 12 days that followed are the focus of this series.

Feel free to refer to my list of important figures in keeping track of who's who.

Previous days: Thursday, July 23rd - the fuse is litFriday, July 24th - "c'est la guerre europeene"Saturday, July 25th - "we stand upon the edge of war"Sunday, July 26th - “War is thought imminent. Wildest enthusiasm prevails.”Monday, July 27th – “You've cooked this broth and now you’re going to eat it.”Tuesday, July 28 – “To try and avoid such a calamity as a European war”Wednesday, July 29th – “I will not be responsible for a monstrous slaughter!”

Thursday, July 30 - "The responsibility of Peace or War"Friday, July 31 - "Everything is finished. There is nothing left to do."Saturday, August 1 - "There must have been some misunderstanding" ----------------------------------------------

Sunday, August 2 - "A great country does not wage war by halves"

The previous 5 days had seen 4 of the "Great Powers" of Europe mobilize its armies and gird themselves for a European-wide war. A last-minute stand by Tsar Nicholas II had collapsed under the pressure of his entire government, while the erratic Kaiser Wilhelm II had been undermined by his before he began to look for a peaceful way out. In France, a nation suddenly unified in the face of the greatest foreign crisis since the Franco-Prussian War, the government stuck by its alliance with Russia while pleading for Great Britain to honor its commitment to join France in the war to come.

The main theater of decision-making had shifted from Vienna and Belgrade, then to Berlin and St. Petersburg, and now to London and Brussels. The government of the former, deeply divided, faced either collapse or commitment to a war most of its members did not want. The government of the latter, led by its remarkable young King, would face an even grimmer choice between destruction and dissolution. Their decisions are the last act of the Countdown to World War I.

London - "Neither more nor less than a challenge to Germany"

The British Cabinet met on Sunday for the first time in living memory. While the opposition Conservative Party leader, Andrew Bonar Law speaks for his caucus in declaring his support for joining France and Russia in the struggle against Germany, Prime Minister Asquith notes that for the governing Liberals "a good 3/4th of our party are for absolute non-interference at any price". A conversation between Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward Grey and a Liberal MP that day demonstrates this: Grey asks what he will do if Germany invades Belgium, as the German Chancellor had indicated to the British Ambassador earlier that week.

Liberal MP: She [Germany] won't do it. Grey: I don't suppose she will, but supposing she does. Liberal MP: She won't do it.
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Sir Edward Grey
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Winston Churchill prior to becoming First Lord of the Admiralty
The party's opposition is of major concern to Grey, Asquith and their pro-intervention colleagues - First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill among them - for 2 reasons. The first is that Grey has already committed to supporting France in the years leading up to 1914; the British navy will cover the English Channel against German attack to allow the French to concentrate their navy in the Mediterranean, and a British Expeditionary Force of 6 divisions will join the left flank of the French army. The second is political: enough Cabinet members have threatened to leave on both sides of the dispute, that the government will fall and new elections will have to be held. Such an outcome would almost certainly put the Conservatives back in power, but would also prevent any commitment to France until the new government was in place.

At the Cabinet meeting, Grey finally admits to his colleagues that the government's pledge to protect the northern coast of France with the British navy was designed to ensure cooperation in wartime. With the French navy having left that coast undefended as part of the prewar agreement he implores his anti-intervention colleagues to change their minds.

If the Channel is closed against Germany, it is in favor of France, and we cannot take half measures - either we must declare ourselves neutral, or in it [ie the war].
Grey adds that, if the Cabinet opts for neutrality, he will resign rather than break his promise to the French. Yet Grey's demand for action is denied for now. John Burns, President of the Board of Trade refutes that defending the French coast is "neither more nor less than a challenge to Germany, tantamount to a declaration of war against her."Burns submits his resignation right then and there, although Asquith convinces him to attend the 6:30 PM Cabinet meeting to keep the discussion going. President of the Council, Lord Morley and Attorney General Sir John Simon agree to join Burns in holding a tough line. So, for now does Chancellor of the Exchequer David Lloyd George.
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John Burns
France's Ambassador, Paul Cambon, for his part complains to the foreign editor of the London Times that "I do not know whether this evening the word "honor" will not have to be struck out of the English vocabulary."Yet he is partially comforted by the knowledge that the Cabinet has agreed to send the navy to protect the Channel, albeit highly reluctantly. "In truth a great country does not wage war by halves", he cables back to Paris. "Once it decided to fight the war at sea it would necessarily be led into fighting it on land as well."

The 6:30 PM meeting sees Asquith and Grey push for a British military commitment if Germany violates Belgian neutrality. In a desperate attempt to avoid more resignations and with them the government's collapse, Grey agrees that only a "substantial violation" of Belgian territory will serve as a casus belli for intervention. Yet the opposition stiffens. Morley threatens to join Burns, while Simon complains about aligning with the autocratic Russian regime. When Grey warns that France will be overrun by Germany if Britain abandons her, Lloyd George shoots back "How will you feel if you see Germany overrun and annihilated by Russia?"The government appears ready to collapse - and stay neutral - as August 2nd comes to an end.

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Lord Morley
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David Lloyd George
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Prime Minister Asquith. His daily letters to his mistress provide invaluable insights into his thinking during the July Crisis.
It is implicitly agreed by all at the 6:30 PM meeting that British intervention can only come if Belgium chooses to resist a German invasion. As Asquith admits, Britain cannot be "more Belgian than the Belgians"; Britain cannot fight for a country that will not fight itself.

Brussels - "Our answer must be no, whatever the consequences."

On July 29th the German ambassador to Brussels, Klaus von Below-Selaske, had received a package from his government that contained a message to be delivered upon further orders to the Belgian government. Having occupied the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg early that morning (following a violent confrontation between Kaiser Wilhelm and Field Marshall von Molkte on the basis of false hopes for French neutrality), Below is now ordered to present his message at 8:00 PM.

He goes before a government acutely aware of the danger facing its people. The popular, highly competent King Albert - the only European monarch in 1914 with both power and good judgment - had received a frightening warning from the Kaiser and Moltke on a trip to Berlin the year before. "Small countries, such as Belgium," they told Albert, "should be well-advised to rally to the side of the strong if they wishes to retain their independence."

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Albert I of Belgium. He and his wife were highly popular for their down-to-earth attitude, modest spending and close-knit family life, all in complete contrast to his uncle, Leopold II of Belgian Congo infamy.
Belgium had become sufficiently alarmed by July 31st to order mobilization of the Belgian army. In keeping with its public pledge of neutrality going back to 1839, however, the government deliberately kept its troops away from its borders. On August 2nd the news that Germany has occupied similarly neutral Luxembourg is followed by intelligence from the Belgian consulate in Cologne that trains crammed with German soldiers have been leaving Cologne bound not for France but Aix-la-Chapelle and the Belgian border. Foreign Minister Jean Davignon urges his colleague Baron Gaiffier: "Let us go to mass and offer prayers for our poor country: never has it stood in such need of them!"

Below arrives as ordered to deliver his message. Having previously assured the Belgian government that the invasion of Luxembourg did not mean the same fate for Belgium - "Your neighbor's roof may catch fire but your own house will be safe" - he now presents an ultimatum from Berlin: allow the German army to march through its country en route to France or be crushed by the same army. Brussels has until 8:00 AM - just 12 hours later - to reply.

Albert, his ministers and his generals quickly meet to decide whether to surrender. They all come to the same conclusion: allowing Germany to violate its neutrality - especially since Germany has pledged to protect its status going back to the 1839 Treaty of London - would mean sacrificing its independence to a nation whose armies would have little incentive to leave once they had occupied the country. Surrendering would thus not only violate international law but almost certainly wipe Belgium off the map. Nor would there be any incentive for France to respect Belgian independence, and the lives of its people, should their armies enter Belgium during the struggle; the flat plains of Flanders had been the center of fierce warfare in modern Europe - Waterloo to name but one example - so this is no mere hypothetical.

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The Schlieffen Plan as originally designed. Note how virtually all of Belgium is passed through by Germany en route to France.
At 2:30 AM Ambassador Below receives the Belgian reply.
[The] infringement of our independence with which the German Government threatens her would constitute a flagrant violation of international law. No strategic interest justifies such a breach of law. Were it accept the proposals laid before it, the Belgian Government would sacrifice the nation's honor while being false to its duties towards Europe [to say neutral]...if this hope [of peace] were disappointed, the Belgian Government is firmly resolved to repel every infringement of its rights by all the means in its power.
As Baron Gaiffier later recalls:
The response [to Berlin's ultimatum] was very easy to draft. We had only to translate in plain language onto paper to feelings that moved each one of us. We were sure that we correctly interpreted the views of the whole country.
Albert prepares to speak before the Belgian parliament the next morning. He also drafts a formal request for assistance to London and Paris to be sent the moment the ultimatum expires. What Prime Minister Asquith notes as an another example of the "crude, childlike diplomacy" of Germany in 1914 will prove decisive in propelling the last of the "Great Powers" into the conflict.

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